Abu dhabi: Electricity consumption in the Middle East and North Africa has surged in recent decades and is projected to continue its sharp rise.
According to Emirates News Agency, this increase in demand is being driven by various factors, including the need for cooling and water desalination, as countries in the region look to diversify their power supplies.
The report, titled “The Future of Electricity in the Middle East and North Africa,” offers a detailed analysis of the electricity sectors throughout the region, which has been a global energy system cornerstone. The IEA report finds that electricity demand in the Middle East and North Africa tripled from 2000 to 2024 due to rising populations and incomes. Current policy settings suggest that electricity consumption in the region could rise by another 50% by 2035, equating to the current combined demand of Germany and Spain.
The report highlights that approximately 40% of the projected increase in electricity demand over the next decade will come from cooling and desalination needs, driven by the region’s extreme heat and water scarcity. Other contributing factors include urbanisation, industrialisation, electrification of transport, and the expansion of digital infrastructure.
Currently, natural gas and oil dominate the region’s electricity mix, accounting for over 90% of total generation. However, several countries, including Saudi Arabia and Iraq, are implementing policies to reduce reliance on oil in power systems, aiming to reserve it for higher-value uses or export. Natural gas is expected to meet half of the electricity demand growth by 2035, significantly reducing oil-fired output.
Solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in the region is projected to increase tenfold by 2035, potentially raising the share of renewables in electricity generation to around 25%. Additionally, nuclear power is anticipated to triple in capacity, contributing to the diversification of the power mix.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol highlights that the region has experienced the third-largest growth in electricity consumption globally since the start of the century, following China and India. Birol notes that power capacity is set to expand by over 300 gigawatts in the next decade, equivalent to three times Saudi Arabia’s current total generation capacity.
Dr. Birol adds that government policies across the Middle East and North Africa indicate a shift away from oil for electricity generation over the next decade, with an expansion of natural gas, solar, and nuclear power. This shift is expected to significantly alter the power mix, affecting global energy balances and emissions.
Investment in the region’s power sector reached $44 billion in 2024, with projections indicating a 50% increase by 2035. Nearly 40% of this investment is earmarked for grid improvements to address transmission and distribution losses, which are currently double the global average.
The report also examines a scenario where electricity systems in the region diversify more slowly than planned. In such a case, oil and gas demand for electricity generation would rise by over a quarter by 2035, potentially reducing oil and gas export revenues by $80 billion and increasing import bills by $20 billion.