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OPEC Sticks to Strong Oil Demand Growth Forecasts in 2024, 2025

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has stuck to its forecast for relatively robust growth in global oil demand in 2024 and 2025, citing resilient economic growth and strong rebound in air travel in the summer months.

In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), OPEC has predicted that global oil demand would rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025. Both figures remain unchanged from its first forecast in January 2024.

Similarly, on the supply side, the group has kept its non-OPEC+ liquids supply growth estimates unchanged at 1.23 mn b/d for 2024 and 1.10 mn b/d for 2025. Non-OPEC+ growth will mostly be driven by the U.S., Canada and Brazil. According to an average of secondary sources, OPEC+ crude production fell by 125,000 b/d to 40.8 mn b/d in June. Thats good for 2.3 mn b/d below OPEC’s projected call on OPEC+ crude.

The gap between forecasts by OPEC and other energy agencies has grown in recent months, with both the EIA and IEA dow
ngrading their oil demand growth estimates for the current year. The EIA has predicted that global oil demand will increase by 1.1 mn b/d in 2024 while the IEA sees even lower growth at 960,000 b/d.

Source: Qatar News Agency