Chicago:This year's powerful El Ni±o could lead to an estimated 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027, as projected by the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab.
According to Emirates News Agency, the report predicts global land temperatures will rise approximately 1.2°C above normal levels in the coming months, resulting in 44% more extremely hot days than typically expected.
Researchers have projected around 239,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between September 2026 and February 2027. The most severe impact is anticipated in the Global South, with the Sahel region, including Niger, Chad, Nigeria, and Sudan, expected to record approximately 66,800 additional deaths over the next six months. Nigeria alone could experience about 31,400 additional deaths, while Indonesia might see around 19,300.
The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia are projected to collectively record around 19,400 additional heat-related deaths.
Researchers described the unusually high temperatures associated with this year's El Ni±o as a 'postcard from the future,' indicating conditions that could become more common within the next two decades due to climate change. The report suggests that targeted emergency measures in the most vulnerable areas could prevent tens of thousands of deaths in the coming months.
Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and an economist at the University of Chicago, emphasized that the projections could aid decision-makers in identifying where immediate action could save the most lives.