UNCTAD Predicts $27 Billion in Welfare Gains from South-South Trade Agreement

Abu dhabi: The So Paulo Round Protocol is on the verge of coming into force, with just one more ratification needed. This development marks a significant milestone for developing countries aiming to finalize one of the most ambitious South-South trade agreements after nearly thirty years of negotiations. The agreement arrives at a crucial time characterized by geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic fragmentation, offering a practical avenue for developing nations to expand trade opportunities, diversify markets, and enhance economic resilience.

According to Emirates News Agency, UNCTAD projects that the implementation of this trade agreement could result in welfare gains of up to $27 billion for the participating economies. Once operational, the agreement will afford the eleven participating countries tariff reductions of at least 20% on approximately 6,000 products. This is anticipated to create new export opportunities and fortify regional and inter-regional value chains. Beyond trade, the agreement promises broader benefits such as supporting industrial development and economic diversification.

Currently, over half of the exports from developing countries are directed to other developing nations. The countries involved in the agreement represent a market worth roughly $18 trillion and account for nearly 20% of global merchandise imports. This underscores the increasing economic significance of the Global South. The renewed momentum surrounding the agreement stems from commitments made by member states during UNCTAD16, which called for accelerated efforts towards the agreement's entry into force and implementation.

Concluded in 2010, the So Paulo Round Protocol stands as the most ambitious result under the Global System of Trade Preferences among Developing Countries. It is the only inter-regional trade agreement that has been negotiated and led exclusively by developing nations. As the Secretariat of this initiative, UNCTAD is providing technical assistance and analytical support to the participating countries to prepare for implementation. This includes technical notes that highlight South-South trade opportunities in sectors such as agriculture, marine fisheries, and aquaculture.

The members are scheduled to convene in Geneva on 20 July 2026, for the 34th session of the Committee of Participants of the Global System of Trade Preferences among Developing Countries (GSTP COP34). The meeting aims to review the progress towards the agreement's entry into force, discuss implementation priorities, and explore ways to further bolster South-South trade cooperation. The discussions are anticipated to cover topics such as bio-based value chains, investment, finance, technology, and sustainable development.

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