Paris: Global average gross agricultural income per worker is projected to increase by 9% by 2035, driven by productivity gains and broadly stable agricultural prices, according to a new report released today by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). According to Emirates News Agency, the report reveals that this positive outlook is not without its challenges, as it remains vulnerable to market volatility caused by crises and conflicts. The report estimates a 25% probability that agricultural incomes in 2035 could fall below current levels if the frequency of shocks observed in recent years continues. Recent energy price hikes and the resulting reductions in fertiliser use pose significant short-term risks, potentially affecting agricultural production in 2027. While high-income countries can more easily absorb these shocks, low-income countries face deteriorating food security. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outloo k 2026-2035 offers a global baseline reference for medium-term prospects for agricultural and fisheries markets. Under stable conditions, global agricultural and fisheries production is expected to expand by 13% over the next ten years, driven by productivity improvements and production intensification, with growth concentrated in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America. The Outlook also highlights potential negative impacts from adverse shocks. If the 33% average surge in energy prices observed in the first half of 2026 continues, global grain production could decline by 0.9% in 2027, with a sharper decline of 1.7% in low-income countries. Associated income losses and higher food prices would force households in lower-income countries to reduce food consumption and shift towards cheaper food. OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann emphasized the importance of resilience in agrifood systems, stating that protecting it means better support to weather shocks, sustained investment in productivity, and open , well-functioning global markets. FAO Director-General QU Dongyu added that strengthening resilience involves preparing for future shocks by investing in diversified trade corridors, regional reserves, resilient infrastructure, and a diversified energy mix to ensure temporary disruptions do not become food security crises. Under stable conditions, productivity gains are expected to account for most production growth, with some expansion in crop areas and livestock numbers. However, direct greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are projected to increase by 6.5% over the next decade, with livestock accounting for around 77% of this increase. Projected productivity improvements are expected to exert downward pressure on real agricultural commodity prices. This may benefit consumers but could create challenges for smallholder farmers, who are vulnerable to market volatility and may lack the capacity to adopt necessary technologies. Governments are encouraged to support productivity growth while improving fa rmers' access to markets and providing locally tailored support programmes. Consumers in lower middle-income countries are expected to diversify their diets with higher consumption of livestock products as living standards rise. However, low-income countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, are projected to lag in food security and nutrition. Southeast Asia is projected to account for 39% of global consumption growth by 2035, driven by population growth and rising demand. Multilateral cooperation, open markets, and rules-based international agricultural trade remain vital to strengthening global food security, supporting more diverse diets, and stabilising farm incomes. Global cereal production is projected to reach a record 3.22 billion tonnes by 2035, driven mainly by yield improvements. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for a rising share of global agricultural production, contributing about 16% of additional global agricultural production in value terms by 2035. Meanwhile, global fisheries and aquacu lture production is projected to increase by 11% by 2035, with aquaculture accounting for 56% of total production. Asia is expected to remain the engine of global seafood demand and supply growth.